US stock market and us presidential election
Stocks and sectors to monitor during the US presidential election
“Elections 2020: if Trump surprises, JPMorgan strategists think these areas of stock market will be winners.
If Donald Trump pulls another rabbit out of his red MAGA hat on Election Day, JPMorgan strategists think investors should go back to their post 2016 presidential election playbook to try and net some gains.
The game plan would favor buying U.S.-focused stocks over non-U.S. global equities, financials and industrials, say JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. These sectors of the market all outperformed the broader S&P 500 after Trump’s surprise win in 2016, according to JPMorgan’s analysis. Not that the S&P 500’s performance following Trump’s win in 2016 was something to scoff at — it gained about 7.5% from Election Day to the end of the year, shows Yahoo Finance Premium data.
“For the financials in the U.S., the reduced prospects for regulatory tightening could again see the sector gain in the event of a surprise Trump win,” points out Panigirtzoglou.
By contrast, consumer staples and tech could underperform again on a relative basis should Trump win re-election. For tech in particular, it stands to turn into a real whipping boy by the Trump administration (during a nothing to lose second term) on fears of rising monopolistic powers — as seen already in the new attack on Google by the Justice Department. Asian-focused equities could lag as well on concerns of an escalation in Trump’s trade war with China.
Panigirtzoglou sees muted gains in gold (it dropped after Trump’s 2016 win) and copper (it rallied hard last time) if Trump wins — the latter coming as the president has been unclear on an infrastructure plan.”
Stock market data: Yahoo Finance